Euro Elections, the fallout.

Euro Elections, the fallout.

This last round of European and local elections has seen only one big winner and that is UKIP, the controversial party made huge strides locally and managed to win in the European elections.  As much as Labour may try to claim they were also winners in the latest elections most Labour people know they are not doing well enough at the moment and are worried about another term in opposition.  Despite UKIP making large gains the Conservatives did not experience the expected collapse in the local or Euro elections that David Cameron must have feared.  In fact the Tories will end this parliament with more local councillors than any other party a feat that has not been achieved by any other governing party. Of the three main parties the Lib Dems were the party that was hurt most in the latest round of elections.  Although they made some gains in the local elections on the whole they lost a substantial number of seats, and in the Euro elections they finished sixth behind the SNP and the Greens with only one seat.

The biggest story to come out of the European elections was UKIP’s victory, although is was widely expected it has still given the three main parties a bloody nose and left them to wonder what impact UKIP may have in 2015.  The UK was not the only major European nation that backed a eurosceptic party, the Front National managed to win a historic victory in France and although UKIP won’t work with them they will defiantly want to imitate there domestic presence here in the UK come 2015.  Unlike UKIP the Lib Dems had a horrendous night and saw their number of seats in the European Parliament drop from 11 to just 1.  This result has caused serious turmoil in the party with Lord Oakeshott commissioning polling in an apparent bid to remove Nick Clegg as party leader and install Vince Cable in his place.  The Euro elections have shown the Lib Dems just how far they have fallen since 2010 and there are serious concerns that the party will be obliterated in the next election.

To conclude I want to look at a and positive voting trend for Labour.  The Conservatives remain neck and neck with Labour however one interesting point to note is that Ed Miliband’s strategy of stealing former Lib Dem voters seemed to work.  In numerous seats Labour’s vote rose by just over the amount the Lib Dem’s vote fell and Labour strategists believe this plan should get Ed Miliband into Number 10 come 2015.  So although Labour don’t seem to have the opinion poll leads they need to win come the general election their strategy of targeting the third parties voters rather than the oppositions voters could upset historical trends and shock pundits and the Conservatives.

Can the Coalition last past 2015

Can the Coalition last past 2015

Before 2010 a coalition was a very rare and special thing in UK politics only really seen in the world wars, but as the 2015 election creeps closer it is likely, there will be another coalition. The current coalition is a strained affair and Lib Dems and Conservatives genuinely seem to dislike each other, and if it was not for Nick Clegg, it is not farfetched to say that the coalition would have broken down.  And although pressure on the governing party leaders has lessened of late due to positive economic news it seems the Lib Dems still are not keen on continuing the coalition beyond 2015.

A poll of Lib Dem members found that they still are willing to be in a coalition after 2015 but not with the Conservatives, 39% are in favour of a Lib Lab coalition while only 15% would welcome the idea of another Con Dem coalition.  Those numbers taken alongside Nick Clegg claiming the party would “die in a trench” over the Mansion tax policy makes a Con Dem coalition look increasingly unlikely. 

It is not just the Lib Dems who are cool on the idea of renewing the coalition after 2015, Conservative back benchers have been very upset about some of the Lib Dems policies.  And some have said they will not support another coalition government.  The coalition has also seen many Conservative party members fleeing to UKIP and the Conservative membership drop to below 100,000.  The Coalition deal is sapping the moral of both parties which has lead David Cameron to say he will allow his MP’s to vote on a future coalition deal rather than just spring it on them like he did in 2010.  It is fair to say no party has a real appetite to continue the coalition but if the 2015 produces another hung parliament then it might be the only way for the UK to have a stable government.  

Send In The Clowns

Send In The Clowns

Tonight will be a night of celebration for UKIP after a brilliant set of local election results, if the 2013 election is remembered it will be for one thing, the election UKIP made its mark on the domestic political scene.  Although they did not win the most seats, they had a healthy net gain of 139 new councillors and have started to lay roots in local politics, which will be essential if they intend to establish themselves as the fourth main party of British politics. 

The three main parties did not do so well the Lib Dems lost 124 seats and were wiped out in the South Shields by election.  Meanwhile Labour showed once and for all they are not the one nation party they claim to be, experts said Labour should be gaining 500 to 600 seats, that estimate has been revised to 350 seats but on all accounts they failed to hit the number of seats they should have won.  Labour had a gain of 291 councillors and gained control of 2 councils, publicly Labour said they would have been happy to win 200 but they know that, that sort of total would not be good enough for this stage of the election cycle.  As for the Conservatives, David Cameron will not be celebrating at the fact his party lost 335 councillors but many experts were expecting much worse with numbers like 600 being mentioned.   The Conservatives also lost control of 10 councils Labour only took control of two of these councils while the rest had no overall majority, one gold nugget amongst the Conservative results was that they held onto Staffordshire one of Labours big targets.  The Conservatives took control of Staffordshire for the first time since 1981 in 2009 and were expected to lose control of the council this time round, failing to regain Staffordshire is a glaring defeat for the Labour party.

There is one piece of bad news for UKIP though Sky news showed on Friday night that if the support in the local elections were the same across the country in 2015 UKIP would fail to win a seat due to the first past the post system.  Labour would have a slim majority of 12 on 331, the Conservatives would have 245 seat, the Lib Dems 48 seats and other parties on 26 seats.  However, Labour will not celebrate at this statistic, they know they are not doing nearly well enough at this stage of the electoral cycle and if the UKIP vote is eroded by 2015 (which it probably will be) then they are likely to remain in opposition for another term.