Local Election 2013 Results In Full
Council results
|
Party
|
Councils
|
Councillors
|
||
|
Total
|
+/
-
|
Total
|
+/-
|
|
|
Conservative
|
18
|
-10
|
1116
|
-335
|
|
Labour
|
3
|
+2
|
538
|
+291
|
|
Liberal Democrat
|
0
|
0
|
352
|
-124
|
|
Independent
|
0
|
0
|
165
|
+24
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
147
|
+139
|
|
Green Party
|
0
|
0
|
22
|
+5
|
|
Residents Association
|
0
|
0
|
12
|
+2
|
|
Mebyon Kernow
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
+1
|
|
Liberal
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
+1
|
|
Independent Community and Health Concern
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
|
Vacant
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
|
BNP
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-3
|
|
English Democrats
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Idle Toad Party
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-1
|
|
No Overall control
|
13
|
+8
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
|
After
34 Out Of 34 Councils Have Declared
|
||||
To see my initial analysis of the full results visit http://thepoliticspeople.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/send-in-clowns.html
Council elections,
Council by Council break down
|
Anglesey
Previous Control = No Overall
Control
Now Controlled by = No Overall Control |
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Independent
|
14
|
-2
|
|
Plaid Cymru
|
12
|
+6
|
|
Labour
|
3
|
-1
|
|
Lib Dems
|
1
|
-1
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
|
Conservative
|
0
|
-2
|
|
30 seats up for election (whole Council)
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Independent 1995-2004
No Control 2004 -
|
||
|
Bristol
Previous Control = No Overall
Control
Now Controlled by = No Overall Control |
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Labour
|
28
|
+7
|
|
Lib Dem
|
23
|
-10
|
|
Conservative
|
14
|
0
|
|
Green
|
4
|
2
|
|
Independent
|
1
|
1
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
|
23 seats up for election (A third of the Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Labour 1995-2003
No Overall Control 2003 – 2009
Lib Dem 2009 – 2011
No control = 2011 -
|
||
|
Buckinghamshire
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled by = Conservative |
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
36
|
-6
|
|
UKIP
|
6
|
+6
|
|
Lib Dems
|
5
|
-2
|
|
Labour
|
1
|
1
|
|
Independent
|
1
|
1
|
|
49 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Labour 1995-2003
No Overall Control 2003 – 2009
Lib Dem 2009 – 2011
No control = 2011 -
|
||
|
Cambridgeshire
|
||
|
Previous Control = Conservative
|
||
|
Now Controlled By = No overall
control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
32
|
-10
|
|
Lib Dem
|
14
|
-9
|
|
UKIP
|
12
|
+11
|
|
Labour
|
7
|
+5
|
|
Independent
|
4
|
+4
|
|
Green Party
|
0
|
-1
|
|
69 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No overall control 1973-1977
Conservative 1977-1985 No Overall Control 1985-1989
Conservative 1989-1993
No overall control 1993-1997
Conservative 1997-2013
|
||
|
Cornwall
Previous Control = No Overall
Control
Now Controlled By = No overall
control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Independent
|
37
|
+4
|
|
Lib Dem
|
36
|
-2
|
|
Conservative
|
31
|
-18
|
|
Labour
|
8
|
+8
|
|
UKIP
|
6
|
+6
|
|
Mebyon Kernow
|
4
|
+1
|
|
Green Party
|
1
|
+1
|
|
123 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No overall control 2009
|
||
|
Cumbria
Previous Control = No Overall
control
Now Controlled By = No overall
control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Labour
|
35
|
+10
|
|
Conservative
|
26
|
-12
|
|
Lib Dem
|
16
|
1
|
|
Independent
|
7
|
1
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
84 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No Overall Control 1973-1977 Conservative 1977-1981 Labour 1981-1985 No Overall Control 1985-1997 Labour 1997-2001 No Overall Control 2001- |
||
|
Derbyshire
|
||
|
Previous Control = No Overall
Control
|
||
|
Now Controlled By = Labour
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Labour
|
43
|
+18
|
|
Conservative
|
18
|
-13
|
|
Lib Dems
|
3
|
-4
|
|
Independent
|
0
|
-1
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
|
64 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Labour 1973-1977
Conservatives 1977-1981 Labour 1981-2009 Conservative 2009-2012
No Overall Control 2012-2013
|
||
|
Devon
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
38
|
-3
|
|
Lib Dem
|
9
|
-5
|
|
Labour
|
7
|
+3
|
|
UKIP
|
4
|
+4
|
|
Independent
|
3
|
+1
|
|
Green Party
|
1
|
0
|
|
62 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1985
No overall control 1985-1989 Conservative 1989-1993 No overall control 1993-1997
Lib Dems 1997-2001
No overall control 2001-2005
Lib Dem 2005 -2009
Conservative 2009-
|
||
|
Dorset
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
27
|
-1
|
|
Lib Dem
|
12
|
-4
|
|
Labour
|
5
|
5
|
|
UKIP
|
1
|
1
|
|
Independent
|
0
|
-1
|
|
Green Party
|
0
|
0
|
|
45 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1993
No overall control 1993-2001 Conservative 2001- |
||
|
Durham
Previous Control = Labour
Now Controlled By = Labour
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Labour
|
94
|
+24
|
|
Independent
|
19
|
-1
|
|
Lib Dems
|
9
|
-16
|
|
Conservative
|
4
|
-7
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
126 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Labour 2008-
|
||
|
East Sussex
|
||
|
Previous Control = Conservative
|
||
|
Now Controlled By = No Overall
Control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
20
|
-9
|
|
Lib Dems
|
10
|
-3
|
|
Labour
|
7
|
+3
|
|
UKIP
|
7
|
+7
|
|
Independent
|
5
|
+2
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
49 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1985
No overall control 1985-1989
Conservative 1989-1993
No Overall Control 1993-2001
Conservative 2001-2013
|
||
|
Essex
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
42
|
-18
|
|
Labour
|
9
|
+8
|
|
Lib Dems
|
9
|
-3
|
|
UKIP
|
9
|
+9
|
|
Independent
|
3
|
1
|
|
Green
|
2
|
2
|
|
Residents Association
|
1
|
1
|
|
75 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1985
No Overall Control 1985-1989
Conservative 1989 -1993
No Overall Control 1993-1997
Conservative 1997-
|
||
|
Gloucestershire
|
||
|
Previous Control = Conservative
|
||
|
Now Controlled by = No Overall
Control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
23
|
-11
|
|
Lib Dems
|
14
|
+2
|
|
Labour
|
9
|
+5
|
|
Independent
|
3
|
1
|
|
UKIP
|
3
|
3
|
|
Green
|
1
|
0
|
|
53 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No overall control 1973-1977
Conservative 1977-1981
No overall control 1981-2005
Conservative 2005-2013
|
||
|
Hampshire
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
45
|
-6
|
|
Lib Dems
|
17
|
-8
|
|
UKIP
|
10
|
+10
|
|
Labour
|
4
|
+3
|
|
Independent
|
2
|
+1
|
|
Greens
|
0
|
0
|
|
78 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No overall control 1973-1977
Conservative 1977-1985 No overall control 1985-1989
Conservative 1989-1993
No overall control 1993-1997
Conservative 1997-
|
||
|
Hertfordshire
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
46
|
-9
|
|
Lib Dem
|
16
|
-1
|
|
Labour
|
15
|
+12
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
|
BNP
|
0
|
-1
|
|
Green
|
0
|
-1
|
|
77 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No overall control 1973-1977
Conservative 1977-1985 No overall control 1985-1989 Conservative 1989-1993
No overall control 1993-2001
Conservative 2001-
|
||
|
Isle Of Wight
|
||
|
Previous Control = Conservative
|
||
|
Now Controlled By = No overall
control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Independent
|
20
|
+10
|
|
Conservative
|
15
|
-9
|
|
Labour
|
2
|
+1
|
|
UKIP
|
2
|
+2
|
|
Lib Dem
|
1
|
-4
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
40 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Independent 1973-1977
Conservative 1977-1981
Liberal 1981-1985
Liberal/SDP 1985-1989
Lib Dem 1989-1998
No overall control 1988-2005 Conservative 2005-2013 |
||
|
Kent
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
45
|
-29
|
|
UKIP
|
17
|
+17
|
|
Labour
|
13
|
+11
|
|
Lib Dem
|
7
|
0
|
|
Green
|
1
|
+1
|
|
Residents Association
|
1
|
+1
|
|
Independent
|
0
|
-1
|
|
84 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1993
No overall control 1993-1997 Conservative 1997- |
||
|
Lancashire
|
||
|
Previous Control = Conservative
|
||
|
Now Controlled By = No overall
control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Labour
|
39
|
+23
|
|
Conservative
|
35
|
-16
|
|
Lib Dem
|
6
|
-4
|
|
Independent
|
3
|
0
|
|
Green
|
1
|
-1
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
|
BNP
|
0
|
-1
|
|
Idle Toad Party
|
0
|
-1
|
|
84 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1981
Labour 1981-1985
No overall control 1985-1989
Labour 1989-2009
Conservative 2009-2013
|
||
|
Leicestershire
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
30
|
-6
|
|
Lib Dem
|
13
|
-1
|
|
Labour
|
10
|
+6
|
|
UKIP
|
2
|
+2
|
|
Independent
|
0
|
0
|
|
Green Party
|
0
|
0
|
|
BNP
|
0
|
-1
|
|
55 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No overall control 1973-1977
Conservative 1977-1981
No overall control 1981-2001
Conservative 2001-
|
||
|
Lincolnshire
|
||
|
Previous Control = Conservative
|
||
|
Now Controlled By = No overall
control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
36
|
-24
|
|
UKIP
|
16
|
+16
|
|
Labour
|
12
|
+8
|
|
Independent
|
10
|
+2
|
|
Lib Dem
|
3
|
-2
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
77 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No overall control 1973-1977
Conservative 1977-1993
No overall control 1993-1997
Conservative 1997-2013
|
||
|
Norfolk
|
||
|
Previous Control = Conservative
|
||
|
Now Controlled By = No overall
control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
40
|
-20
|
|
UKIP
|
15
|
+14
|
|
Labour
|
14
|
+11
|
|
Lib Dems
|
10
|
-3
|
|
Green Party
|
4
|
-3
|
|
Independent
|
1
|
+1
|
|
84 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No overall control 1973-1977
Conservative 1977-1993
No overall control 1993-1997
Conservative 1997-2013
|
||
|
North Yorkshire
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
45
|
-3
|
|
Independent
|
8
|
-3
|
|
Lib Dems
|
8
|
-3
|
|
Labour
|
7
|
+6
|
|
Liberal
|
2
|
+1
|
|
UKIP
|
2
|
+2
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
72 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1993
No overall control 1993-2001 Conservative 2001- |
||
|
Northamptonshire
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
36
|
-8
|
|
Labour
|
11
|
+7
|
|
Lib Dems
|
6
|
-1
|
|
UKIP
|
3
|
+3
|
|
Independent
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
57 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Labour 1973-1977 Conservative 1977-1981 No overall control 1981-1993 Labour 1993-2005 Conservative 2005- |
||
|
Northumberland
Previous Control = No overall
control
Now Controlled By = No overall
control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Labour
|
32
|
+15
|
|
Conservative
|
21
|
+4
|
|
Lib Dems
|
11
|
-15
|
|
Independent
|
3
|
-4
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
62 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No overall control 2008-
|
||
|
Nottinghamshire
|
||
|
Previous Control = Conservatives
|
||
|
Now Controlled By = Labour
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Labour
|
34
|
+21
|
|
Conservative
|
21
|
-14
|
|
Lib Dems
|
8
|
-1
|
|
Independent
|
4
|
-5
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
-1
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
67 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Labour 1973-1977
Conservative 1977-1981 Labour 1981-2009
Conservative 2009-2013
|
||
|
Oxfordshire
|
||
|
Previous Control = Conservatives
|
||
|
Now Controlled By = No overall control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
31
|
-14
|
|
Labour
|
15
|
+8
|
|
Lib Dem
|
11
|
+3
|
|
Independent
|
4
|
+3
|
|
Green
|
2
|
0
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
|
63 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1985
No overall control 1985-2005 Conservative 2005-2013 |
||
|
Shropshire
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
48
|
-6
|
|
Lib Dem
|
12
|
+1
|
|
Labour
|
9
|
+2
|
|
Independent
|
5
|
+3
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
74 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 2009- |
||
|
Somerset
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
28
|
-6
|
|
Lib Dem
|
18
|
0
|
|
Labour
|
3
|
+1
|
|
UKIP
|
3
|
+3
|
|
Independent
|
2
|
+2
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
57 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1985 No overall control 1985-1989 Conservative 1989-1993 Lib Dems 1993-2001 No overall control 2001-2005 Lib Dems 2005-2009 Conservatives 2009- |
||
|
Staffordshire
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
34
|
-15
|
|
Labour
|
24
|
+21
|
|
Independent
|
2
|
0
|
|
UKIP
|
2
|
-2
|
|
Lib Dems
|
0
|
-4
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
62 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Labour 1973-1977 Conservative 1977-1981 Labour 1981-2009
Conservative 2009-
|
||
|
Suffolk
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
39
|
-16
|
|
Labour
|
15
|
+11
|
|
UKIP
|
9
|
+8
|
|
Lib Dems
|
7
|
-4
|
|
Independent
|
3
|
+1
|
|
Green
|
2
|
0
|
|
75 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1993 No overall control 1993-2005 Conservative 2005- |
||
|
Surrey
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
58
|
+1
|
|
Lib Dem
|
9
|
-4
|
|
Residence Association
|
9
|
-1
|
|
UKIP
|
3
|
+3
|
|
Green
|
1
|
+1
|
|
Labour
|
1
|
0
|
|
81 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1993 No overall control 1993-1997
Conservative 1997-
|
||
|
Warwickshire
|
||
|
Previous Control = Conservative
|
||
|
Now Controlled By = No overall
control
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
26
|
-13
|
|
Labour
|
22
|
+12
|
|
Lib Dems
|
9
|
-3
|
|
Independent
|
3
|
+2
|
|
Green
|
2
|
+2
|
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
|
62 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No overall control 1973-1977 Conservative 1977-1981 No overall control 1981-1989 Conservative 1989-1993
No overall control 1993-2009
Conservative 2009-2013 |
||
|
West Sussex
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
46
|
-2
|
|
UKIP
|
10
|
+10
|
|
Lib Dems
|
8
|
-13
|
|
Labour
|
6
|
+4
|
|
Independent
|
1
|
+1
|
|
Greens
|
0
|
0
|
|
71 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 1973-1993 No overall control 1993-1997
Conservative 1997-
|
||
|
Wiltshire
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
58
|
-4
|
|
Lib Dem
|
27
|
+3
|
|
Independent
|
8
|
-2
|
|
Labour
|
4
|
+2
|
|
UKIP
|
1
|
+1
|
|
Green
|
0
|
0
|
|
98 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
Conservative 2009-
|
||
|
Worcestershire
Previous Control = Conservative
Now Controlled By = Conservatives
|
||
|
Party
|
Seats
|
+/-
|
|
Conservative
|
30
|
-12
|
|
Labour
|
12
|
+9
|
|
UKIP
|
4
|
+4
|
|
Lib Dems
|
3
|
-5
|
|
Green
|
2
|
+2
|
|
Independent
|
2
|
+1
|
|
Independent community
and health concern
|
2
|
0
|
|
Liberal
|
1
|
0
|
|
Residence Association
|
1
|
0
|
|
57 seats up for election (Whole Council )
|
||
|
Electoral History:
No overall control 1973-1977 Conservative 1977-1989 No overall control 1989-1997 Conservative 1997- |
||
Analysis
Three big stories came out of the election, UKIP’s success, Labour’s failure to pick up as many seats as they were expected and the Conservatives did not lose as many seats as expected. Let’s deal with the UKIP surge first, UKIP did not win any councils and still trail the 3 big parties in overall number of councillors. However, they were still very impressive and even in councils in which they did not win any seats they hurt the Conservative vote share. The big question now is how will David Cameron react to the UKIP problem, many are urging a shift to the right but Cameron is already on the right if you look at his policies. He has capped immigration, he is offering a referendum on the EU, he has cut taxes and has cut welfare. Now he could avoid more liberal issues such as wind farms and gay marriage, but these are part of the Tory plan to detoxify their brand and they are not issues at the top of people’s agenda. Cameron should stick to what he is currently doing with the addition of trying to bring forward the EU referendum. When 2015 comes and his record is analysed the electorate will see he is actually offering them what they are asking for, he should not chase UKIP you only need to look at 2001 and 2005 to see that does not work. UKIP should be pleased with their result but I am certain their share of the vote will be eroded by 2015 in favour of the Conservatives.
Three big stories came out of the election, UKIP’s success, Labour’s failure to pick up as many seats as they were expected and the Conservatives did not lose as many seats as expected. Let’s deal with the UKIP surge first, UKIP did not win any councils and still trail the 3 big parties in overall number of councillors. However, they were still very impressive and even in councils in which they did not win any seats they hurt the Conservative vote share. The big question now is how will David Cameron react to the UKIP problem, many are urging a shift to the right but Cameron is already on the right if you look at his policies. He has capped immigration, he is offering a referendum on the EU, he has cut taxes and has cut welfare. Now he could avoid more liberal issues such as wind farms and gay marriage, but these are part of the Tory plan to detoxify their brand and they are not issues at the top of people’s agenda. Cameron should stick to what he is currently doing with the addition of trying to bring forward the EU referendum. When 2015 comes and his record is analysed the electorate will see he is actually offering them what they are asking for, he should not chase UKIP you only need to look at 2001 and 2005 to see that does not work. UKIP should be pleased with their result but I am certain their share of the vote will be eroded by 2015 in favour of the Conservatives.
The results
were not good for Labour they won less than 300 seats and most estimates said
they should have won at least 350 seats.
They failed to win back key councils such as Lancashire and
Staffordshire, however it is not all bad for Labour they are clearly taking
votes from the Lib Dems and with UKIP taking votes from the Conservatives,
Labour are taking back seats. Although
they did not do great, Ed Miliband’s election strategy of maintaining his core
vote while winning over disenchanted Lib Dems may pay dividend come 2015. Although Labour will be in serious trouble is
the Lib Dems recover which they probably will and if UKIP’s share of the vote
goes down as Labour are not taking many votes directly from the Conservatives.
The only
winners in this election were UKIP, the Conservatives will be happy they did
not lose as many seats as expected and Labour will be disappointed not to have
gained more, while the Lib Dems did as expected. The question you have to ask now is why did
Labour not win more seats, and the answer seems to be UKIP. They may be helping Labour in some places by
taking Tory support but they are actually taking support away from Labour (read
this blog to see UKIP’s effect on Labour http://www.markpack.org.uk/40907/labour-are-the-big-losers-from-ukips-surge/
) rather than frustrated Conservatives voting
Labour they instead move to UKIP denying Labour support. They are also sealing working class votes
from Labour, people in their mid 20’s and 30’s who have never voted before who
would be natural voters for Labour are voting UKIP. This is because they like their EU policy and
the fact that they are not one of the 3 main parties. The 2013 local elections have confirmed one
thing , that the 2015 general election will be interesting and is likely to be
decided by two factors, will UKIP’s share of the vote erode? And will the Lib Dems regain chunks of support
that has left them while they have been in government.
No comments:
Post a Comment