Have New Unemployment Figures Put Labour In Check?

New figures out today show the unemployment rate is now 5.7% this is the lowest levels of unemployment since 2008.  There was more pleasant reading for the government as wages have also risen by 1.7% (2.1% including bonuses), taking into account the rate of inflation in January (0.3%) this is a real wage rise of 1.4%.  This looks like it may take the edge off Labours cost of living crisis argument but that really depends on if people are truly feeling the economic recovery.

There are obvious reasons for thinking these new statistics are bad for Labour, its shows the government’s economic plan is working. It furthers the question do you really want to risk the recovery under Labour?  But it would be unrealistic to say that Labour are big losers from this news, their economic plan does not look nearly as bad in a growing economy in fact some parts of it look rather plausible such as more investment in health and education.   Also these figures don’t paint the whole picture, yes wages are growing now but they have been either stagnant or falling for the past 5 years, and Labour has not failed to pick up on this.  Labours Shadow Employment minister has pointed out that over the past 5 years the average person has been worse off by £1,600 a year.

It is to early to say what effect these latest figures will have on peoples voting intentions.  Some may see the figures as a sign that the government’s economic policies are paying off and that we should stick with them.  But many people will say that this is too little, although our economy is growing at the fastest rate in the EU many people have not felt the recovery and they are unlikely to vote Conservative. How these figures effect the election is down to how the parties will spin these statistics, just because is seems like good news for the government does not mean that it has to be bad news for Labour.

Euro Elections, the fallout.

Euro Elections, the fallout.

This last round of European and local elections has seen only one big winner and that is UKIP, the controversial party made huge strides locally and managed to win in the European elections.  As much as Labour may try to claim they were also winners in the latest elections most Labour people know they are not doing well enough at the moment and are worried about another term in opposition.  Despite UKIP making large gains the Conservatives did not experience the expected collapse in the local or Euro elections that David Cameron must have feared.  In fact the Tories will end this parliament with more local councillors than any other party a feat that has not been achieved by any other governing party. Of the three main parties the Lib Dems were the party that was hurt most in the latest round of elections.  Although they made some gains in the local elections on the whole they lost a substantial number of seats, and in the Euro elections they finished sixth behind the SNP and the Greens with only one seat.

The biggest story to come out of the European elections was UKIP’s victory, although is was widely expected it has still given the three main parties a bloody nose and left them to wonder what impact UKIP may have in 2015.  The UK was not the only major European nation that backed a eurosceptic party, the Front National managed to win a historic victory in France and although UKIP won’t work with them they will defiantly want to imitate there domestic presence here in the UK come 2015.  Unlike UKIP the Lib Dems had a horrendous night and saw their number of seats in the European Parliament drop from 11 to just 1.  This result has caused serious turmoil in the party with Lord Oakeshott commissioning polling in an apparent bid to remove Nick Clegg as party leader and install Vince Cable in his place.  The Euro elections have shown the Lib Dems just how far they have fallen since 2010 and there are serious concerns that the party will be obliterated in the next election.

To conclude I want to look at a and positive voting trend for Labour.  The Conservatives remain neck and neck with Labour however one interesting point to note is that Ed Miliband’s strategy of stealing former Lib Dem voters seemed to work.  In numerous seats Labour’s vote rose by just over the amount the Lib Dem’s vote fell and Labour strategists believe this plan should get Ed Miliband into Number 10 come 2015.  So although Labour don’t seem to have the opinion poll leads they need to win come the general election their strategy of targeting the third parties voters rather than the oppositions voters could upset historical trends and shock pundits and the Conservatives.

David Cameron needs to talk to the Mondeo man

David Cameron needs to talk to the Mondeo man

It has been a tough year for the Conservative party, Labour has had a comfortable lead throughout 2013 and UKIP have had a breakthrough year.  There has been talk of leadership coups and there has been general backbench worry about the upcoming 2015 election.  However, it has not all been negative for the Prime Minister, the economy is growing, Labour’s lead is down to 6% from a high of close to 11%, and UKIP’s popularity surge has subsided and stabilised.  Although the year has been tough for the Conservatives the points mentioned above will give them some optimism of being able to win a majority in 2015.  Nevertheless, if they intend to win the first Conservative majority since 1992, 2014 will be a big year and the Conservatives are going to have to start talking to the Mondeo man.

The Mondeo man is the name given to those voters who opted to vote Conservative in 92 but turned to Labour in 97.  Even in 2010 David Cameron was not successful in winning this group back, and it is crucial in 2015 this key electoral group returns to the Conservative party.  This group of aspirational middle class voters kept Thatcher in power for a generation and then Blair, the Mondeo man decides elections.  So far the Mondeo man has been neglected by the government, as this year Cameron has fought UKIP in a successful attempt to stop the Conservative party leaking its core voters.  As he is aware without his party’s core vote he will never win a majority.  In his fight with UKIP Cameron has promised a referendum on the UK’s membership in the EU and has took a tough stance on immigration.  Although these sorts of policies have not won back all the former Conservative voters now considering voting for UKIP, they have won back some and stopped UKIP’s popularity surge.  UKIP had a spike in their popularity in May in which they stood at 15% in the polls since then the Conservatives have successfully shrunk the UKIP’s rating to around 11% were it has remained for the last four months. 

The Conservative party’s offensive against UKIP alongside an economic revival has helped them recover in the polls.  However, they have failed to steal many Labour voters at all and if they are to win in 2015 they need to start damaging Labour’s share of the vote.  To do this they need to target the aspirational middle class (Mondeo man), this is the group they lost in 97 and they need to win it back.  This is the group so often referred to as the “squeezed middle” in the media and is being badly hit by the cost of living.  As keen political observers will have noticed the battle for the Economy is pretty much over, now all Labour want to talk about is the cost of living and this sort of rhetoric could potentially win them the next election.  The Government have done things to tackle the cost of living and come election time these policies will be highlighted, such as the raising of the tax threshold and not raising fuel duty.  However, in the recent debate over the price of energy the government has received a bloody nose by having no real alternative to Labour’s energy price freeze.  In 2014 the Conservative party are going to have to show they are tackling the issues surrounding the cost of living and this includes getting to grips with the cost of energy bills and hitting their 2% inflation target.

Although the economy is growing again many people are yet to feel the effects of this growth, and will be looking to the government to lower the ever-increasing cost of living.  Currently the dreams of the aspirational middle class such as owning a house or owning a new car seem very distant, and the party who can make these dreams realistic will be the party of government come 2015.  David Cameron has already started to try to talk to this key electoral group, but more than just talk of cutting green taxes must be done for the Conservatives to show they are taking the cost of living crisis seriously.  

Autumn Statement 2013

Autumn Statement 2013 

The Chancellors golden streak continues, his successful budget has been followed up by a successful Autumn Statement.  The growth predictions in the budget have been revised upwards, growth figures from even further back have also been revised, to show that the UK never went into a double dip recession.  In fact, all the figures from the Office of Budget Responsibility would have made pleasant reading for the Chancellor, the only thing that would have pleased him more was Ed Ball’s stumbling rebuttal.  The economic tide is clearly changing we have moved out of recession and into growth however we still have a problem with the cost of living and many working people are not reaping the rewards of a growing Economy.  George Osborne has actively tried to address some of these problems in this Autumn Statement however, more must be done if the Conservatives intend to govern on their own after 2015.

As mentioned above one of the sweetest aspects of the Autumn Statement for Conservatives were the OBR’s figures about growth.  Firstly there was no double dip recession this announcement will do the governments reputation regarding economic competence a world of good.  The 2013 growth figure was also revised upwards from 0.6% to 1.4%, which strengthens the Chancellor’s claims that the economy is moving in the right direction and disproves Labour's claims that the government’s economic policy is not working.  The Deficit has also been reduced by a greater amount than predicted in the March budget, it is now expected to be 6.8% rather than the 7.5% predicted on budget day, borrowing has also been revised down by £9 billion.  All these figures give Conservatives a reason to smile and at least on a macroeconomic scale, the policy of austerity seems to be working.

As addressed in the introduction despite a growing economy the effects of this growth are not being felt by everyone, particularly the hard working people who the Conservatives need to win round by 2015 if they intend to earn a majority in the House of Commons.  George Osborne has shown he is aware of how hard it can be for working people by setting out plans for a set of policies to try to stop a rise in the cost of living.  These policies include scraping next years planned fuel duty rise and a deal with the energy companies to prevent further price rises next year which is expected to save the average family £50 a year.  Also a tax break for some married couples combined with an increase in the personal allowance also shows the Chancellor is trying to do something about the cost of living.  Although the tax allowance for married couples is only expected to help 1 in 6 couples, which takes some of the shine of the policy.  The Autumn statement went on to address the problem of youth unemployment in the UK, employer national insurance will be scrapped for under 21’s to encourage businesses to take a chance on hiring young people.  In addition, 20,000 new apprenticeships will be created, the effect of this policy is going to be down to the quality of the apprenticeships and more apprenticeships will still need to be created but this is still a move in the right direction. 

In conclusion the Conservative party should be pleased with the latest Autumn statement it has tried to address many of the current problems for working people and has shown an improvement in the economy as a whole.  It does not make pleasant reading for those people who will not be retiring till 69 and will end up paying more for their pensions, however the UK has a pension crisis brewing so in practice it is a sensible policy.  But as I have mentioned a few times already it is essential for the Conservatives to deal with the issues facing real people and not only that they also need to appear more in touch with everyday problems or run the risk of losing their grip on power in 2015.   

The Conservatives have won the argument but not the election

The Conservatives have won the argument but not the election

It seems like an age ago that George Osborne was under assault from all fronts for his economic policy, the IMF singled him out for criticism, the ratings agencies downgraded the UK’s credit rating, and he was seen as a hapless Chancellor.  His fortunes have had a revival and there are whispers of him becoming the next leader of the Conservative party.  Just like the Chancellor, the Conservative party has started to win the big arguments, with Labour now promising to be tough on welfare and to allow parents to open free schools, as well as the popular sale of Royal mail.  So by this logic the Conservatives should be set to coast to a majority in 2015, however it seems unlikely that it will be so easy.

Ed Miliband has highlighted a key issue, which has the potential to decide the next election in his conference speech, the cost of living.  Although you can easily argue that Labours policy to tackle the rising cost of energy is counterproductive.  Sadly for the Conservatives that is not their only idea, and as Labour slowly start to fill their policy void the cost of living will become a greater issue for Cameron and Osborne.  Labour’s other idea has received endorsements for rightward leaning think tanks and it is a logical idea that worked well for Alistair Darling and Conservative back benchers have also called for it.  It’s a cut to VAT , unless it is a substantial cut it will still be a token gesture but Darling’s own small cut in VAT did lead to economic growth.  But the Chancellor in his position of increased confidence says any savings made from cuts will be used to pay off government debts and there will be no VAT cut. 

The Chancellor may just be waiting until it is closer to the election before he starts to dish out goodies such as tax cuts or he might be plotting a different way to tackle the cost of living.  One such way cut be a cut to Green taxes which are damaging industry by increasing the cost of production which is being passed on to consumers, and it is severely damaging energy intensive industries such as the chemical and steel industries.  Moreover, for all the damage green taxes do to the economy and the cost of living they have a minimal effect on climate change.  Although Vince Cable has ruled out a cut to green taxes under the coalition this does not mean that a Conservative manifesto will not include such a policy and it would be a move of political genius that Osborne is known for.  It would some red meat for the right of the party and it would tackle the issue of the cost of living as well as showing that the Conservatives are on the side of UK industry.  Whatever Cameron and Osborne decide to do they will need a policy to tackle the cost of living problem in the UK or risk helping Ed Miliband into Number 10 after all very few people feel better off now than they did in 2010.

Can the Coalition last past 2015

Can the Coalition last past 2015

Before 2010 a coalition was a very rare and special thing in UK politics only really seen in the world wars, but as the 2015 election creeps closer it is likely, there will be another coalition. The current coalition is a strained affair and Lib Dems and Conservatives genuinely seem to dislike each other, and if it was not for Nick Clegg, it is not farfetched to say that the coalition would have broken down.  And although pressure on the governing party leaders has lessened of late due to positive economic news it seems the Lib Dems still are not keen on continuing the coalition beyond 2015.

A poll of Lib Dem members found that they still are willing to be in a coalition after 2015 but not with the Conservatives, 39% are in favour of a Lib Lab coalition while only 15% would welcome the idea of another Con Dem coalition.  Those numbers taken alongside Nick Clegg claiming the party would “die in a trench” over the Mansion tax policy makes a Con Dem coalition look increasingly unlikely. 

It is not just the Lib Dems who are cool on the idea of renewing the coalition after 2015, Conservative back benchers have been very upset about some of the Lib Dems policies.  And some have said they will not support another coalition government.  The coalition has also seen many Conservative party members fleeing to UKIP and the Conservative membership drop to below 100,000.  The Coalition deal is sapping the moral of both parties which has lead David Cameron to say he will allow his MP’s to vote on a future coalition deal rather than just spring it on them like he did in 2010.  It is fair to say no party has a real appetite to continue the coalition but if the 2015 produces another hung parliament then it might be the only way for the UK to have a stable government.  

Conservative economic policy finally paying dividend

Conservative economic policy finally paying dividend

It has been a good summer for the Conservative party and a very good summer for George Osborne, finally the Economy is moving in the right direction.  The 2012 budget was an absolute shambles and pressure was building not just on the Chancellor but also the government, but since the latest budget there has been a steady stream of good news for the Government.

We have recently seen the number of houses with nobody in work drop to a record low, which shows some success from the governments controversial welfare reforms.  More good news came today when the UK service sector grew at the fastest rate for 6 years, and we are expecting to see growth in the manufacturing sector as well.  Also recent growth in the EU has been driven by the UK and a recent revision of economic growth numbers has shown that the UK did not just avoid a triple dip recession we actually avoided a double dip recession.

A final piece of good news for the government is that today Ed Balls wrote a piece for the Guardian in which even he has finally admitted the economy is moving in the right direction.  He did not give any credit to Conservative economic policy though, however it is fair to say it is more likely that the growth in the economy was due to Conservative policy than Labour policy.  In fact the recent good news about the economy has once again illustrated Labours own lack of economic policies.  

Bad news for Conservatives study shows ethnic minority vote could decide 2015

Bad news for Conservatives study shows ethnic minority vote could decide 2015

The Black and Asian community in the UK is a rapidly growing group and is slowly becoming an important group of voters who could decide who is in number 10 come 2015. By 2015 the Black and Asian vote will have grown by 70% compared to 2010, this is a huge rise and the Conservative party should be worried as this is a group of voters which they fail to connect with.   The Conservative Party’s lack of appeal amongst Black and Asian voters was evident in 2010 when they only received 16% of Black and Asian votes compared to Labour which received 68% of this groups votes.   It is argued by Oxford University’s Professor Heath that the Conservatives failed to get a majority in 2010 because they failed to connect with the Black and Asian vote.

in 2000 and 2004 George W Bush greatly increased the Republican party's share of the Latino vote by running an election strategy that attempted to reach out to this group, the Conservatives may try something similar in 2015.

This problem will only get worse as the ethnic vote now is greater than the sitting MP’s majority in 168 marginal seats this has increased from an estimated 99 seats in 2010. The Ethnic vote is clearly important if the Conservatives intend to win in 2015 and beyond it looks like it could come as important as Americas Hispanic vote.  There are clearly similarities between the groups both are growing rapidly and both have the power to swing an election result but most importantly for the Conservatives they both prefer left wing parties.  The only good news for the Conservatives it that in the USA the Republicans in 2000 and 2004 made an effort in George W Bush’s presidential election campaigns to get win over the Hispanic vote and it is fair to say he was successful. David Cameron and the Conservatives are going to have to make a similar effort to win votes from the UK’s own ethnic vote or face a long period out of government.  The Conservatives can win over large chunks of the ethnic vote if they focus on key Conservative ideas of aspiration, hard work and social mobility because these ideas resonate with all ethnic groups.  It is defiantly possible for the Conservatives to increase their share of the ethnic vote and if the party intends to remain the natural party of government it will need to and this might mean trying to make immigration a lesser issue in 2015.    

Tory membership crisis

Tory membership crisis

Conservative party membership officially stands at 177,000 and falling from 258,000 since the start of David Cameron’s leadership.  However, Conservative party membership may be much lower than the official numbers say as the party has yet to publish its yearly membership total which suggests that is has fallen again.  Steven Swinford a senior political correspondent for the Daily Telegraph recently wrote an article suggesting that Conservative party membership has dipped below 100,000. Whether or not the party membership has dropped below 100,000 or not Conservative membership has been on the decline since David Cameron became leader of the party and something needs to be done or come 2015 the Conservatives may have a serious lack of man-power.

The big question for Conservative party HQ is how to reverse the membership trend and get more people to join the party.  Reducing membership costs could be a start, this is something Ed Miliband did to try and reinvigorate the Labour party and it has been successful as Labour has seen a rise in its party membership.  Conservative standard membership is actually cheaper than standard Labour Membership, it costs £25 for a standard Conservative membership while a standard Labour party membership costs £44.50.  However, Labour’s membership costing is very clever and has been designed to grow local parties, Labour membership only costs £15 if you are recruited by the local party.  Not only is this cheaper than a Conservative party membership new members are recruited by party members themselves which makes new members more welcome as they will already know more people in the party.  Conservatives could operate a similar scheme to Labour and offer discounted membership to those who join the party through their local association this would encourage members to recruit more people to dwindling local associations.  Alternatively  the Conservative party could expand their friend scheme, which offers partial membership for £1, they could offer full membership for £1 and go on a large recruitment drive putting adverts in the right wing newspapers, they could even offer free membership since membership fees only contribute a small amount to the parties overall income. 

Obviously, cost is not the only reason stopping people joining the Conservative party as in all honesty it is reasonably priced when compared with its rivals.  The biggest problem for the Conservative party is that the leadership is cut off from the rest of the party  and the membership feel powerless to stop the leadership taking the party in the wrong direction.  Calling UKIP member’s closet racists and swivel eyed loons has also not helped drive up party membership as many Conservative members share common believes with UKIP.  In theory, a new leader more aligned with the right of the party may see a rise in Conservative membership as the party’s core support would feel the leadership was more in tune with their beliefs.  However UK political party membership has been in long-term decline for years when Harold Wilson became Prime Minister 10% of people were members of a political party now it’s around 1%.  The challenge for political parties in the future seems to be one of gaining more members and to do this they are going to have to create parties that are more responsive to their members, if they don’t they are going to have to create a party machine that can win elections with a small membership.   

The case for a flat tax

The case for a flat tax

In recent months tax has been a hot issue, in particular tax avoidance.  You will have noticed the media fury at big companies such as Google and Amazon failing to pay their fair share of tax, and the current state of anger at the rich paying accountants to avoid paying tax.  Although these things are morally wrong they are not legally wrong, and this is because of loopholes in our highly complex tax system, the between 1997 and 2010 the Labour government create an extra 5000 pages of tax rules and regulation on top of what already existed. 

Tax avoidance is a real problem and the TUC says individual tax avoidance costs the treasury around £13 billion per year, and £12 billion in lost tax from business.  To put this in perspective benefit fraud only costs the treasury around £1 billion per year so it is a big problem.  Many will call for the government to close tax loopholes and the government is doing this but it is not easy as the law surrounding tax is so complex that accountants just find other ways for their clients to dodge tax.  I see two solutions to this problem the first is for the government to close each loophole as they crop up, however this would be very slow work possibly going on forever as every time a new tax law is passed it could potentially create new loopholes.  The second option would be the creation of a flat income tax for all individuals and a flat business tax for all business.

A flat tax is not just a good theory it works in practice countries such as Slovakia and Russia as well as some states in the USA have implemented a flat income tax, and have found tax receipts have increased and tax avoidance has decreased.  This is not surprising as a simple tax system has very few or even no tax loopholes.  Also a simplified system would save HMRC the £55 million they spend each year helping people fill in their tax forms.  The Economist also supports a flat tax and in when featuring an article about Slovakia’s tax system it said it ‘helped to spur foreign investment and economic growth, actually leading to a slight increase in tax revenue.’   The next question is what level would the flat tax be set at, Edward Leigh MP says in The Future of Conservatism, Values Revisited that a flat tax of 22% with a personal allowance of £15,000 would result in a reduction in tax revenue of £62 billion in the first year of the new tax.  However, the taxpayers alliance says that the tax loop holes which would be closed by the flat tax could raise an extra £81 billion of tax revenue and the removal of tax deductions and allowances would raise an extra £18 billion, so the treasury would actually make more money through tax that it currently does.

The biggest argument facing a flat tax is one of fairness, the current progressive system of taxation is seen as fair as the rich pay more than the poor, and some would argue that making the poor pay the same as the rich would be unfair.  Well this argument does not really stand up firstly those on the lowest incomes would be given a generous personal allowance of £15,000 which is more than they currently get.  Plus the tax would stamp out tax avoidance would be stamped out meaning the rich would contribute more in tax than they currently do.  Everyone would benefit from a flat tax the many would receive a tax cut and a large one at that and those who currently pay the basic rate and would be receiving a 2% tax rise would be compensated with an increased personal allowance which would be about £5000 more than the current personal allowance.  A flat tax would also boost the economy for the simple reason tax receipts rise when tax is cut because more people come to do business in your country, this was the case when Thatcher cut the top rate of tax from 83% to 40% and it was the reason Tony Blair did not increase taxes.  Also, a flat tax fits with the governments message of making work pay as many people on low paid jobs would pay no income tax at all which will make work more attractive to those stuck on benefits.  A final point to make is that as the global market gets more and more competitive, the UK needs a tax system that encourages businesses and entrepreneurs to come to this country, and if we happen to leave the EU being competitive in the global market will be crucial if the UK wants to continue to thrive and grow.  

A Conservative victory is far from certain in 2015

A Conservative victory is far from certain in 2015

Labours lead is thin, the Economy is growing again, the UKIP rise has faltered, and everything is looking bright for the Conservative party.  Over recent weeks Conservative MPs have been in jovial mood and there has been relative harmony amongst the parliamentary party, and this is because the first Conservative majority since 1992 seems in reach.  However, there are still several large hurdles in the way of a Conservative Majority in 2015.

The Conservative party have the same problems today as they did in 2015 and if these problems are not addressed the chances of a majority in 2015 will be slim.  Firstly, the Conservative party is almost non-existent in Scotland, out of a possible 59 seats in Scotland the Conservatives currently hold only one.  The Scottish phenomenon is a real problem for the Conservative party, since 1979 the popularity of the Conservatives has declined in Scotland after the 79 election the Conservatives held 22 out of a possible 72 seats.  In 83 the Conservatives lost one seat leaving them with 21 MPs in Scotland, the 87 election saw the first major loss of support for the Conservatives in Scotland their number of MPs was slashed from 21 to 10.  The 92 election saw an increase in Conservative MPs in Scotland but only be a single MP and in the historic 97 election the Conservatives were left with no MPs in Scotland and since then the party has only held one seat in Scotland.  The Conservative party is really struggling in Scotland and there are no signs that its support will increase in 2015.

As well as struggling in Scotland, the Conservatives have a huge problem in Urban seats in the North and the Midlands currently they hold 20 out of a possible 124 in these areas.  The Conservative party needs a rebranding in the North and in Scotland and not a David Cameron detox style branding,  since 2005 David Cameron and his team have done a reasonable job of removing the nasty party label from the Conservative party.  However in Scotland and in the North it seems that it was not that voters thought the Conservatives to be the nasty party but an out of touch party, and I don’t believe that David Cameron is the man who can rebrand the party to be the party that northern and Scottish voters would see as in touch with them.  So this brings me on to another problem with the Conservative party, the parties image,  the Conservatives are still seen by many to be the party of the rich and despite many working and lower middle class people holding Conservative views they don’t vote Conservatives.  This is because they are seen as the party for the rich not the party for everyone, this is of course ridiculous and David Cameron has tried with his strives verse skivers line to rebrand the party as the party that stands up for hard working families.  Only time will tell if this works but personally I doubt it will, mainly because David Cameron’s background is one of a Tory toff  and Labour love to take advantage of this apparent weakness. 

To Conclude despite positive signs a Conservative majority in 2015 is still not a certain thing and this is because of problems in Scotland and the North as well as an image problem.  On top of this, the Conservatives have a massive lack of support amongst ethnic minorities even though many are natural Conservative voters.  Wales also looks like another area of unpopularity for the Conservatives but not on the same scale as Scotland and I almost forgot UKIP still has the potential to be a thorn in the Conservative party’s side come 2015.  But, despite all this the Conservatives have hired the Wizard of Oz Lynton Crosby and the man behind Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign Jim Messina, these two men are famous for election success and the Lynton Crosby effect has already helped improve the Conservatives ratings in the polls.  Although it is far from certain I believe the Conservatives will at least be the largest party in a hung Parliament and there is a good chance of a majority due to the current state of Labour.  

What is Conservatism?

What is Conservatism?

Conservatism is by far the most difficult ideology to pin down unlike socialism and liberalism which are clear and have very distinct cornerstones, Conservatism is almost a living ideology constantly changing and moving to adapt with the times.  There is a reason the Conservative party is one of the oldest parties in the world, and why it survived when the Liberals died, it is because of the flexible nature of Conservatism.  On a basic level  Conservatism is keeping (conserving) what is good and what works and changing what fails to work.  The Conservative party is rather like a chameleon it has an uncanny ability to change its skin to suite the political background of the day.

Many people today associate Conservatism with Thatcherism, and while Thatcherism is a strand of Conservatism, it is only one of many strands of Conservative thinking albeit a rather dominant one.  If you look back through history, you will see a constantly evolving Conservative party the Conservatives passed legislation for trade union rights and health projects before the Labour party was even formed.  There have been large changes in Tory ideology over the years with Disraeli’s One nation Conservatism to Macmillan’s “middle way” which lead to the entrenching and expansion of the welfare system and more recently the party was gripped by Thatcherism which saw the state rolled back and the private enterprise grow.  It is fair to say all these distinctly different strands of Conservatism are Conservative in their nature as they identify a problem and change what causes the problem while not changing programmes and institutions which that group believe work.

To conclude Conservatism is the ideology of common sense in my opinion because of how it works, it identifies what is working and what is failing, it then tries to improve that what is failing while leaving that what is working.  This is why there are so many strands of Conservatism and why traditionally the Conservative party has a large core support because it is a broad church inviting many different ideas.  In my opinion the reason the Conservative party failed to adapt between 97 and 2005 is because it forgot its roots and rather than changing the strand of Conservatism that governed the party as it had always traditionally done in opposition it stuck with Thatcherism and failed to keep up with changes in society.  It is my opinion that the Conservative ideology is vast and almost to lose to even be a real ideology, it is so much harder to define than socialism or liberalism but that is why it works so well.  The Conservative party survives because it has and hopefully always will be a party of competing ideas.  

Stick With Dave

Stick With Dave

Recent polls have shown that David Cameron is less popular than his party, now should he get the boot?  Many right wingers in the Tory party have been itching to get rid of the Prime Minister and up until now the PM has had the advantage of being an electoral asset to the party, but at long last he is a liability.  There is an argument to remove him, the public move seems to be swaying to the right UKIP’s popularity shows this but who would replace Cameron, Gove? May? Both these potential front-runners for the leadership are also modernisers.  And to be honest the party wants a moderniser in charge when the party fought the 2001 and 2005 elections with a right wing message we were comprehensively beaten.  Plus the Tory modernising project has not really shifted the party to the left David Cameron and the mods still believe in tax cuts and free enterprise, they have just tried to make the party more compassionate, although since coming into government they have dropped the compassionate message.  It is still fair to say that the modernising agenda is more likely to win the party a majority than running a more right wing agenda and actually, the right of the party has plenty to be pleased about.  Dave has cut immigration by a third, he has cut the top rate of tax from 50% to 45%, he has increased the personal allowance which is essentially a tax cut (it also shows some compassionate conservatism), he is tackling welfare and he is promising a referendum on the EU.  The right of the party has been well looked after under David Cameron. 

Forgetting about what Dave has and has not done policy wise removing him now at this stage of the Parliament would be damaging.  The party will have to go into a leadership contest when they should be governing, the leadership contest may well be a bloody affair revealing all the rifts in the party.  And if a moderniser wins the right may not necessarily back them and if a right winger wins the modernisers are unlikely to support him.  A Michael Gove or William Hague may well unite the party however rifts will probably appear again when the European election goes badly and the party will have had two consecutive years of infighting.  I personally think a leadership challenge would be disastrous for the party at this stage of the Parliament and it will make us look divided come election time which could be sooner than 2015 if the new leader did not hit it off with Nick Cleg.  We should stick with Dave and if he loses in 2015 let the leadership battle commence, there are plenty of quality candidates to lead us back to number 10. 

For Cameron Unity Is Key

For Cameron Unity Is Key

This has been a tough week for Conservative party unity, after the funeral of Maggie Thatcher the party seemed so united.  Then came the local election and the party returned to the usual battle on Europe, there is a strong consensus within the party that we should have a referendum.  However some want it before the general election to stave off the UKIP threat while others don’t believe it is necessary until after the next election.  Then we had gay marriage in which the party was split and both sides were passionate about the issue, which makes the split even more damaging however I believe this rift will heal.  The most damaging thing to happen this weak was the Swivel eyed loons comment, but this highlights a greater communication problem between the grassroots of the party and the leadership.

Whatever your view on gay marriage you will probably agree it was not a shrewd political move by David Cameron to try to pass a law legalising it.  His thinking was that the bill would detoxify the party image and in theory, it would have however in practice backbench MP’s don’t always dance to the tune of the leadership.  Gay marriage was an issue which stirred passions amongst many Tory MP’s and has left the party looking intolerant, although the main opposition argument was not one of tolerance it was more about the definition of  marriage but the truth does not matter perception is what matters.  The most damaging thing to come out of the gay marriage debate for the Conservatives was it once again showed the divisions in the party between socially liberal modernisers and socially Conservatives.  This is only one rift in the party there are the Europhiles and Euro sceptics, there are One nation conservatives and Thatcherites.  It seems at the moment on any issue us Conservatives could scrap amongst ourselves, we fought over gay marriage, we are still fighting over Europe, we fight over how to deal with UKIP, we fought over what Osborne should have done with his last budget and we fight over David Cameron’s capability to lead the party.  Labour also has its infighting largely to do with their current policy vacuum but these have not been publicised of late.

To conclude the Conservative party is a broad coalition, it is a big tent party and that is why it can be such a political force.  However when the party is not properly managed it can wage war upon its self, Europe is the major flashpoint issue but as the gay marriage bill illustrated there are other serious dividing lines within the party.  If David Cameron intends to remain in number 10 after the 2015 election he has to steer the party away from these flashpoint issues, the party needs to be united come 2015.  There are issues which he can stick to, although there are differences of opinion on how to manage the economy there is a broad consensus within the party we need to tackle the deficit.  He can also continue with other big projects like education reform, but if he intends to win in 2015 he needs to avoid infighting by choosing policy wisely.  He also needs to make sure no member of his inner circle mutters a bad word about the party members, and he would be wise to start looking at reforming the party structure to attract more members and so the leadership has clearer communications with the grass roots.   

Send In The Clowns

Send In The Clowns

Tonight will be a night of celebration for UKIP after a brilliant set of local election results, if the 2013 election is remembered it will be for one thing, the election UKIP made its mark on the domestic political scene.  Although they did not win the most seats, they had a healthy net gain of 139 new councillors and have started to lay roots in local politics, which will be essential if they intend to establish themselves as the fourth main party of British politics. 

The three main parties did not do so well the Lib Dems lost 124 seats and were wiped out in the South Shields by election.  Meanwhile Labour showed once and for all they are not the one nation party they claim to be, experts said Labour should be gaining 500 to 600 seats, that estimate has been revised to 350 seats but on all accounts they failed to hit the number of seats they should have won.  Labour had a gain of 291 councillors and gained control of 2 councils, publicly Labour said they would have been happy to win 200 but they know that, that sort of total would not be good enough for this stage of the election cycle.  As for the Conservatives, David Cameron will not be celebrating at the fact his party lost 335 councillors but many experts were expecting much worse with numbers like 600 being mentioned.   The Conservatives also lost control of 10 councils Labour only took control of two of these councils while the rest had no overall majority, one gold nugget amongst the Conservative results was that they held onto Staffordshire one of Labours big targets.  The Conservatives took control of Staffordshire for the first time since 1981 in 2009 and were expected to lose control of the council this time round, failing to regain Staffordshire is a glaring defeat for the Labour party.

There is one piece of bad news for UKIP though Sky news showed on Friday night that if the support in the local elections were the same across the country in 2015 UKIP would fail to win a seat due to the first past the post system.  Labour would have a slim majority of 12 on 331, the Conservatives would have 245 seat, the Lib Dems 48 seats and other parties on 26 seats.  However, Labour will not celebrate at this statistic, they know they are not doing nearly well enough at this stage of the electoral cycle and if the UKIP vote is eroded by 2015 (which it probably will be) then they are likely to remain in opposition for another term.

Britain expected to avoid triple dip recession

Britain expected to avoid triple dip recession

George Osborn may allow himself a pat on the back, as it is expected this week the UK will avoid a triple dip recession.  Senior ministers are quietly confident that figures will reveal growth in the UK economy for the first quarter of the year, even if it is minimal growth.  City economists predict 0.1% growth, not anything to shout about but importantly for the Chancellor the Economy will avoid a triple dip recession.  In recent years, Britain has seen a damaging series of recessions in 2008, 2009 and the beginning of last year, if the economy was too slid into a triple dip recession it would have been hugely damaging for the Chancellor.

Ministers are starting to believe that the worst is over and this may be the beginning of a sustained economic recovery.  Positive growth figures would be a huge relief for the Chancellor after a week in which he has faced increasing pressure from the IMF and the UK’s credit rating has been downgraded by Fitch.  Nevertheless, even the downgrade had a silver lining in which the Chancellor was warned that the UK would face a further downgrade if they relaxed efforts to reduce the deficit.

The Chancellor still won’t be able to rest easy and Labour will not see such anaemic levels of growth as positive.  In fact Ed Balls will still be able to attack the Chancellors flat lining economy and the fact that the UK’s predicted growth for the year has been slashed to 0.7%.  In all honesty, growth figures of 0.1% would be nothing to get excited about but they would allow the Chancellor to rest a little easier knowing the economy will not be heading for a triple dip recession and that his economic plan may be starting to produce sustainable growth by 2015.  There are no guarantees yet but maybe George Osborne’s economic plan will actually work.     

Will Ed Risk Increasing Spending?

Will Ed Risk Increasing Spending?

Rumours are circling that Labour could reject austerity at the next election and increase government spending in an attempt to restart the economy.  This could see Ed Miliband reverse conservative cuts and offer the electorate a radical choice in 2015, one thing is certain if Miliband does end up rejecting austerity the 2015 election will offer the electorate the starkest choice since 1983.  It will soon be time for Labour to start unveiling some policies and most importantly setting out its spending plans this is going to be a tough decision for Miliband as not matter what he chooses he will face criticism.  

If Miliband accepts austerity he risks being branded a hypocrite and losing plenty of support, this is mainly down to the fact that under his leadership Labour have been strong critics of every coalition cut.  If Miliband says, Labour won’t reverse the cuts and will stick to Conservative spending plans it will likely win Labour some economic credibility.  However Labour has gained plenty of support from opponents of the cuts, it is reasonable to say that most of Labours new found support since 2010 has come from people who oppose the cuts.  It is likely that Labour will be unsuccessful with their plan to win over former Lib Dem supporters if they start to support cuts and can’t promise to reverse austerity.  So surely  Labour should promise to increase spending and roll back austerity, but in reality this option is just as dangerous for Labour.  Labour is already trailing when it comes to opinion polls on economic competence and on their ability to make tough decisions, if Labour comes out against austerity then further questions will be raised about their economic competence.  Conservatives will also be able to level blistering attacks at Labour reminding the electorate of how Labour ran the economy into the ground and their new plan is to bankrupt Britain again.  If Labour chose to reject austerity, they face the prospect of a 1992 re-run, there are questions about whether Labours leader is fit to be Prime Minister, and there are big question marks on Labours Economic competence.

Miliband is in an unenviable position he risks losing support no matter which way he goes,  the best thing he can do is chose the route he has the most belief in because come 2015 he will have to explain his economic plan and protect it from opposition attacks.  There is no point of Miliband winning the election if he does not win it on a platform he believes in at the end of the day if Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister he does not want to implement the same policies as the Conservatives.  If he does choose to go against austerity and offer the electorate a real choice the next election will be a fascinating battle of ideas and which will probably increase turnout, which has fallen since 97 with a slight bounce in 2010.  However, I believe whatever Labour decide to do the Conservatives will win the next election with a small majority, as Labour will lose some of its new found support to the Lib Dems and UKIP’s vote will collapse in favour of the Conservatives.  Furthermore, if the economy picks up before 2015 it will be a Conservative landslide. 

Who Is Adam Afriyie?

Who Is Adam Afriyie?

You probably had never heard of Adam Afriyie MP until recently, when he was all over the news as a potential leadership challenger to David Cameron, But who is he?  Adam was a Businessman before entering Parliament, and he is a self-made millionaire.  This is probably the reason why he does not claim expenses for his London home, or travel to and from his constituency.  Adam is no Tory toff he was bought up on a council estate in Peckham, this is likely to help him if there is a leadership election as it is a significant contrast between him and the Prime Minister who is seen as an out of touch old Etonian.

   

Adam was became MP for the Conservative safe seat of Windsor in 2005 and retained his seat in 2010 increasing his majority by just under 10,000 votes to a massive majority of 19,054.  As an MP Adam has served as Shadow Minister for Science and Innovation (2007-2010), however he has not served as a government minister but then again Blair and Cameron both served as PM without any prior experience as government ministers.  Adam has sat on numerous standing committees he is also has had roles as chairman of several committees and is the current chairman of three committees (space, science and technology and Expenses).  The majority of the committees Adam has either chaired or served on have revolved around science or finance.

Having seen Adam on the daily politics recently it is clear to me he has ideas for how the country should be run.  He also has a charm and charisma, which is essential for a Prime Minister in the era of 24-hour news.  Although what is most important about Adam as a potential leadership candidate is that, he is apparently popular in the parliamentary party, which is essential for a potential leadership campaign.  Whether he has enough support to defeat the Prime Minister is a different question, also is he experienced enough?  It is true ministerial experience does not make or break a Prime Minister, it would be nice to see how he could cope running a government department before he runs the country or even just the party.  Although he is clearly got the qualities of a leader I hope he does not try to overthrow Cameron as it would just damage the party and in my opinion make defeat in 2015 inevitable, as divided parties are always unpopular.  If he does hold back until after 2015 you have to ask will he get the leadership, he is likely to come up against Boris Johnson if the election is lost.  And if the election is won he will have to face a David Cameron who would have won the first Conservative Majority in over 20 years and it is unlikely he will win.  I think it is unlikely he will be the next leader of the Conservative party, but he is defiantly one to watch and he is made of the right stuff to one day have a crack at the leadership one day. 

Does the UK need the European Court of Human Rights?

Does the UK need the European Court of Human Rights?

Chris Grayling (Justice Secretary) and Theresa May (Home Secretary) have recently announced a Conservative manifesto pledge to leave the European court of human rights, (ECHR) but what would that actually mean for the UK?  The ECHR is nothing to do with the EU it is a court that was established by the European convention of human rights.  If an individual feels that the state is infringing one of their rights given to them in European convention on human rights, they can take the state to the ECHR.

I don’t think anyone would argue against human rights being a good thing however the ECHR is often vilified in the right wing press.  For things such as Abu Hamza not be deported due to the ECHR, the court can make it difficult to deport asylum seekers and this is the court that wants to give prisoners the vote.  However, this does not negate the fact that the ECHR is a great protector of human rights across Europe.  It is also worth noting that in all the cases against the UK government the court has only ruled against the government in 2% of cases, however these cases do usually get reported leaving many angry at the court.

Despite claims from the left, you would not lose all your human rights if we were to leave the ECHR look at countries such as America and Australia their citizens are not being abused by the state.  It is true that the ECHR would no longer protect our rights, but either the human rights Act or if David Cameron gets his way a British bill of rights would protect our rights.  It would be our courts however rather than the ECHR which would make ruling on what is and what is not an infringement of our human rights based on the human rights Act or a bill of rights.  There is an argument that a government could get rid of the Human rights Act or a bill of rights however due to the fact that would be extremely unpopular and due to the fact the UK is proud of its record of standing up for human rights it would be unlikely to happen.  So to conclude although I believe that the ECHR is a fantastic institution and a staunch protector of human rights I do not believe our rights would be at risk if we left due to our own track record on human rights and our own courts independence and commitment to upholding human rights. 

Don’t Despair Dave Remember 1992

Don’t Despair Dave Remember 1992

The 1992 election was historic for two reasons, the first being it was the fourth Conservative victory on the bounce and no party had done that since the war.  The other reason was that John Major’s Conservatives were not meant to win, at best they were looking at being the biggest party in a hung parliament.  The current mood in the press is a Labour victory in 2015, but even if things don’t pick up the Conservatives can still fight the next election and stand a chance of winning, by doing what they did in 1992.

David Cameron will be more than aware of what happened in 1992, he was after all one of the masterminds behind the campaign.  The question he has to ask himself is can he do it again?  The short answer is yes, all he needs to do is pick holes in Labours economic plan, and that is not exactly hard as the plan Labour current plan is more like a list of complaints about the Tory cuts than a credibly economic plan.  In 1992 the Conservatives showed that Labour was not yet ready to govern by picking holes in their economic plan, basically showing were the sums don’t add up and also how much tax people would pay under Labour and it worked.  This time round showing Labour is not ready for government should be easy.  The Conservatives simply need to attack the fact Labour have not backed a single cut, they refused to cap benefits but capped public sector pay, they could also play the tax card saying how Labour wants the 50p tax despite it raising less money than the current 45p tax.  They can also point out they want to continue borrowing more and more money so they can repeat the “Kinnock’s Double-Whammy” campaign because like in 1992 Labours economic policy will lead to high tax and high inflation.

In 1992 John Major ran a very personal campaign he held rallies on his soapbox and this showed he was more in touch with people than Neil Kinnock who held his rallies in large stadiums and came across as arrogant.  This type of in touch with people campaign will most likely to pay dividend again, David Cameron has a big image problem, he is seen as an out of touch posh boy and using rhetoric like skivers vs strivers is not helping his cause.  For David Cameron to show he is in touch with the voting public he needs to change the tone of his argument rather than skiver vs strivers he needs to explain that welfare reform is a necessary evil  and it is essential to balance the nations books.  Many people will not like this but they will understand it, and it comes across as more compassionate and understanding.  It is the kind of language that says, we understand that many people who draw benefits are just down on their luck.  However, you also have to understand the current system is unsustainable.  Cameron’s current rhetoric makes people on benefits sound like devils that refuse to work and are draining the country dry, the aggressive language used currently will not work in the long run and will further demonise the Tories in the inner cities and in Scotland, it also won’t help win votes amongst those who have recently found themselves unemployed.  So in the run up to the election Cameron needs to change his tone back to the tone of compassionate conservatism, many people do see the argument for his policies but he needs his language to be more in line with, this is essential rather than we don’t care about the poor.

The final piece of the 1992 Conservative victory was Labour leader Neil Kinnock, he just was not prime ministerial, and people just did not trust him.  Luckily the current leader is suffering from the same problem, he is still a figure of fun in many of the papers, many people don’t like the Conservatives but don’t like the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband and finally polls say that David Cameron is seen as more Prime Ministerial than Ed.  In the age of the internet and 24 hour news a parties leader is important and it may just like in 92 prove a huge stumbling block for Labour.

So to conclude I would like to see the next election campaign fought on economic grounds, and for the Conservatives to win they need to launch a sustained attack on Labours economic policy as well as showing them up as not ready to govern.  David Cameron needs to change the party rhetoric to a more compassionate tone, to show the conservatives are in touch with voters no more skivers vs strivers move onto the tone of painful but essential.  This compassionate conservatism worked for Major in 92 and it worked for George Bush in 2004 and 2004, it is a tried and tested way of getting Conservative policy accepted by the public at large.  The final point is to emphasise on the party leaders David Cameron is seen as more compassionate and more electable than his party.  The Prime Minister is an asset and one that should be used to show the caring side of the Conservative party, just as Major used his soapbox to show he understood people better than Kinnock, Cameroon must do the rounds to show he understands voters concerns and that they can trust him, in other words dust of the soapbox.  Fighting the next election using a mix of 1992 tactics and compassionate conservative rhetoric will not necessarily win the next election, but it will lead to a much better result than fighting it on right wing rhetoric of the workers and the shirkers.  Which shows the Conservatives to be out of touch and will help Labours cause, it will also do further damage to the Conservative brand.