Are The Liberal Democrats Dead?

Are the Liberal Democrats dead?

As many of you may have spotted last week Labour won the Corby by election along with two other by-elections in two other safe Labour seats, which is all well and good I could write about the significance of that for Labour but instead I am going to spend the next few minutes mulling over weather this is the beginning of the end of Britain’s third party the Liberal Democrats.

The Lib Dems will be trying to keep calm after a catastrophic defeat in Corby there was a 9.54% swing away from them and they did not get their deposit back as they received less than 5% of the vote. This by itself would not be a cause for alarm but if you look at the 9 by elections the Lib Dems have fielded a candidate they have lost votes in all but the Oldham East and Saddleworth by election which was the first by election of this Parliament so there has been a constant decline in the support for the Lib Dems at by – elections.  The Lib Dems also failed to win a single Police Crime Commissioner election in fact they failed to reach the second round in all the elections they contested, also in the local council elections on the 3^rd of May the Lib Dems lost control of one of their councils and also managed to lose 336 councillors although their overall share of the vote went up by 1%. The question we must ask is whether or not this is just the midterm blues or if the Lib Dems are on the verge of death.

One very good reason for optimism amongst Lib Dems is the government affect, it is a well-known fact that the governing party tends to do bad in any sort of midterm election be it a by-election or a council election.  It is possible that the Lib Dems are just suffering as a consequence of being in government and the situation will all chance come the 2015 general election.  However they may still be a tainted party seen as the party that will sell all its ideals for power.  If you look carefully you will notice that the Lib Dems did not sell out for power and they just have had to compromise as have the Conservatives, but as you probably know in politics it does not matter what is true and what is a lie it is all about what is perceived to be true and the general public believe that the Lib Dems are sell outs.

Another potential problem for the Lib Dems is that at moment they may have lost that third party status as they are a governing party.  They look like that party that is going to take the flak for most of what has gone wrong within the coalition while the Conservatives are going steal all the successful policies as their own.  Strictly speaking the Lib Dems are still a third party but they will have to do something third parties don’t do in Britain at the next election defend their record in government and if by May 2015 the government are still struggling in the opinion polls it is likely we will not see many Lib Dem MP’s as unlike Labour and the Conservatives they don’t have a heartland to retreat to.

One final point before I conclude is the Nick Clegg affect, is it Nick Clegg the public don’t like as he seems to be Cameron’s lap dog at the moment he does not seem to be giving the Lib Dems an independent voice inside government.  It is possible that if the Lib Dems got rid of Clegg and replaced him with Vince Cable who seems very vocal when it comes to opposing the Tories that could maybe save the party at the next election but that depends on if it is just Clegg who is unpopular and that unpopularity has not contaminated his party.

In my opinion the Lib Dems will survive  I think this for threereasons the first being Labour is not trusted with the economy and parties that lack trust on the economy don’t do well so it is likely Lib Dem supporters will stick with them rather than embrace Labour.  My second reason links to the first in that supporting Labour in a by-election or council election is one thing actually voting for them in a general election and supporting them to govern is something totally different, I think the Lib Dem voters who have been voting Labour in the midterm elections will return to the Lib Dems and give them a second chance unless Labour can come up with a viable economic plan which they don’t currently have (excluding students the Lib Dems have lost students).  The final reason i think the Lib Dems will survive is how they have always survived in Conservative seats in which Labour can't win Labour supporters vote Lib Dem to prevent the Tories winning the seat the same applies for Labour seats the Conservatives can't win in these areas the Lib Dems are seen as the lesser if two evils. However although I think the Lib Dems will survive I do think their number of MP will drop in 2015.