SNP want to force Universities to widen access

The SNP today announced that it intends to widen access to Universities by forcing Universities to accept more students from poorer backgrounds.  This seems like another badly thought through publicity stunt from the SNP, there policies are based on good intentions but they don’t always have the means to implement them.  An example of this is the SNP’s plan to double spending on childcare despite not being clear where the money is coming from.

Moving back to the original issue of the SNP forcing universities to accept students from poor backgrounds, and sound like they may potentially introduce a dreaded quota.  This is flawed policy for several reasons, under Scotland’s policy of free tuition the number of Scottish students being allowed into university is capped.  The SNP has not said it would raise this cap, so middle class students with better grades look like they might have to study somewhere in the name of wider access.  This policy also ignores the reasons why students from poorer backgrounds fail to get into university, and that is largely down to grades and the reason for the poor grades is poor schools.  Rather than fixing the underline problem Nicola Sturgeon has instead chosen to ignore it despite there being a clear problem.  3.9% of students from Scotland’s poorest areas managed to get 3 A’s in their higher exams compared to 24% of students in wealthier areas.  Rather than raising the standard of schools in Scotland’s most deprived areas the SNP has instead chosen to just lower the standard of Scotland’s universities which already suffer a funding gap due the Scotland having no tuition fees for Scottish or EU students.

This is a loony left policy that promotes unfairness and tries to solve a real problem by lowering standards rather than fixing the problem. This is the sort off policy that makes people use the saying race to the bottom.  It is a policy that sounds nice but if you look at it a little bit you see that it is a seriously unfair policy and a seriously bad policy and it is a policy the SNP need to fix or drop.

Independence will not solve Scotland’s problems

Independence will not solve Scotland’s problems

It has been difficult over the past few weeks to ignore the Scottish referendum debate, turn on the TV or pick up a newspaper and you will see it.  The question of should Scotland be an independent country? Has been everywhere, the problem with the question of independence, is what an independent Scotland would be like is not set in stone. Voters have the option of voting to stay in a political and economic union that they know but may not necessarily like or voting for an independent Scotland which still has a great number of unknowns such as will it be in the EU or which currency will it use.

The Yes Scotland campaign has blamed Westminster for all Scotland’s problems and claims that Scotland would thrive as an independent nation, while the No campaign has tried to use the uncertainty about what an independent Scotland would look like to spread fear over Scotland’s potential economic strength.  However it is fair to say both sides are exaggerating their points, Scotland would not collapse if it became independent although it may have a few tough years to start with.  And the Yes campaigns claims that Scotland would be a fairer country are also not defiantly true and this is largely down to an independent Scotland’s currency plan.

It is fair to say Scottish politics is more left wing than English politics, you only have to look at the number of Tory MPs in the two countries.  However those voting yes hoping for radical politics and economics in an independent Scotland will be massively disappointed if Alex Salmond’s plans to keep the pound with or without a currency union are implemented.  There is an old saying in British politics, no matter who is in government the treasury runs the country, and this is basically true whoever controls a country’s economic policy has control over the country.  If Scotland keeps the pound Number 11 Downing Street will still have a large portion of control over economic policy in Scotland.  As the Chancellor of the Exchequer along with the Governor of the Bank of England will set interest rate, control the printing of money, set the target inflation rate and have a large degree of control over exchange rates.  All these things are hugely important to a country’s economy and not trivial issues, under Alex Salmond’s current plan an independent Scotland would sacrifice control of all these powers to the Bank of England and Number 11.  This will make it nearly impossible for Scotland to pursue a left wing economic agenda and it will also mean that the Tories will still have power in Scotland.

To conclude although Scotland could still be a successful independent country it will sacrifice many important economic powers to a foreign country if it implements Alex Salmond’s currency plans.  This will mean that Scotland will struggle to implement a left wing economic policy to solve its inequality problems because it will not be able to set the correct economic conditions to pursue a radical form of economics.  Many Yes voters want a more equal society, but with the current currency plans they are not going to get it.  An independent Scotland needs its own currency for many voters’ vision of an independent Scotland to be realised.  However, this would have its own set of problems such as high prices for imported goods, but if Scotland truly wants to be in charge of its own destiny an independent Scotland would need its own currency.  

Scotland should be wary of going it alone

Scotland should be wary of going it alone

Scotland shares a complex web of economic links with the rest of the UK.  If Scotland happens to vote for independence in next year’s referendum there will be huge economic and social consequences as these links gradually come apart.  One of consequence would be Scotland would need a new currency, a debate in the lords earlier this week showed that the rest of the UK would not be willing to share a currency with an independent Scotland.  The key reason for that is it would give the new nation some control of monetary policy, Lords said it would be unacceptable to have members on the Bank Of England’s monetary policy committee who represent the interests of a foreign country.  This is quite right as an independent Scotland could end up going in a very different direction to the rest of the UK leaving them with very different interests to us, so it would be an act of lunacy to allow an independent Scotland to have any influence of the rest of the UK’s monetary policy.  Currency will be a big question for an independent Scotland, and if they join the EU as they intend to they will in all likelihood end up joining the euro and does anyone in Scotland really want that?

Another big problem for a newly independent Scotland is their share of the national debt, anyone who thinks the new nation would be free from its share of the national debt is living in a fantasy world.  This debt will be around £93 billion, which totals up to 63% of Scotland’s GDP, Scotland would also have to take on its share of future liabilities such as public sector pensions which would push Scottish national debt to around £185 billion which amounts to 123% of Scotland GDP.  Another point to make on an independent Scotland’s Debt is that they will have no record of servicing their debts so it is unlikely they will be able to borrow at a low interest rate.  Scotland’s new economy is also going to be hugely reliant on oil, and the price of oil is famously volatile so it is unlikely to provide Scotland with a stable income.  Scotland would also be expected to lose a quarter of a million jobs in the defence sector.

However, the SNP deny these claims and say that if Scotland voted to stay in the UK it would be responsible for over two trillion pounds worth of debt, which is 145% of Scottish GDP.  They also went on to say that talk about job losses in defence are ridicules.  The part about the defence jobs may be true, but once when it comes to Scotland and debt the SNP are once again twisting the facts.  It is true that Scotland is responsible for over two trillion pounds worth of debt and that is 145% of the Scottish economy.  However, they share the burden of this debt with the rest of the UK and it amounts to only 85% of the UK’s GDP which is significantly smaller than 145%.  So once again, the SNP are playing fast and loose with the facts.  A final point to make is that Scotland’s spending is heavily subsidised by the rest of the UK plus it is likely it will borrow money at a much higher interest rate than it currently does and its economy is largely reliant on the public sector.  So it is not unthinkable that it will run large deficits if it goes independent and this would further increase its debt burden.