UKIP Can be the Ross Perot of the 2015 election

UKIP Can be the Ross Perot of the 2015 election

UKIP has seen a huge rise in its popularity since the 2010 general election when the party won 3.1% of the vote, now in the latest YouGov opinion poll they would win 12% if there was an election tomorrow.  They are currently more popular than the Lib Dems, and are expected to win the upcoming European elections.  Despite this the Conservatives are not mounting a sustained attack on UKIP instead there are talks of pacts like they are some sort of distant cousin rather than a party that could ruin any chance of a Conservative majority come 2015.  To illustrate my point I am going to compare UKIP with Ross Perot the independent candidate who derailed two Republican campaigns in the 90’s.

There are several similarities between Perot and UKIP, firstly they are rebels against the established main parties, they both offer policies that people want to see (financial restraint in the case of Perot and lower immigration in the case of UKIP).  They both reach sections of the public who feel ignored and most importantly they both never really stood a chance of winning an election.  However this does not make them unimportant and UKIP have the potential to decide who gets into Number 10.  I am going to show UKIP’s significance by looking at Ross Perot’s impact on the 1996 election, in 96 Ross Perot won 8.4% of the vote significantly less than in 92 when he gave Clinton the election.  In 96 if Ross Perot was not present Bob Dole probably would have won Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri,  Nevada, Ohio, and  Tennessee,   now this would still not  have won Dole the election however it would have been significantly closer and the effect of Perot on keeping Republicans at home in the belief their candidate had already lost is not measurable.  Despite what I just said it is important to note a few differences between Perot supporters and UKIP supporters, Perot drew significant support from both Democrats and Republicans.  While UKIP draws most of its support mainly from Conservatives, although there is support from Labours lost working class vote as well.  Ross Perot was involved in the Presidential TV debates, UKIP so far will not be involved in any leadership debates in 2015 which will cut their media exposure significantly.  Also UKIP is has engaged many voters who have lost interest in politics under New Labour and are significantly more populist than Ross Perot and draws a large amount of working class support while Perot’s support was mainly middle class.  So although there are some similarities and I believe the election impact could be similar it is important to stress that I am not saying that Perot and UKIP are the same.  The link with Perot is largely to illustrate how reasonable support for UKIP candidates in swing seats will lose the Conservatives the election and could give Labour a significant majority.

If the Conservatives intend to damage UKIP they need to attack them just as they would attack Labour, the European referendum is not enough.  As I have wrote before UKIP are more than just an anti-Europe party they are anti-establishment and anti-politics  they are a base for people who are disgruntled with the main parties.  This does not however make them any harder than Labour to attack, UKIP have some fundamental weaknesses.  One is they lack details on their economic policy Conservatives need to find little holes and then ask can we afford UKIP?  They also lack a plan for what to do when they leave the EU they are making it seem simple, this needs to be attacked  showing UKIP up as amateur inexperienced and unsuitable for government.  The Conservatives can also try to entice UKIP supports by showing the rise in the tax

threshold and the fall in immigration as well as trumpeting the return to economic growth.  American style targeting of potential UKIP voters is also needed, show them all the populist right wing policies the current government has enacted.  Lynton Crosby has slowed the advance of UKIP by making Cameron focus on more right wing policies that attract UKIP voters, but at election time these policies need to be trumpeted to show potential UKIP voters they can get what they want with the Conservatives.  Finally scare tactics need to be implemented, many of these UKIP voters will not want to see Labour in government after all they are the party of Europe and mass immigration, the link between voting UKIP and getting Labour needs to be established.  It may already be too late to kill off  UKIP as the Conservatives were arrogant in their attitude towards UKIP for too long, and although it is almost certain UKIP will not win in 2015 they can lose the election for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives have won the argument but not the election

The Conservatives have won the argument but not the election

It seems like an age ago that George Osborne was under assault from all fronts for his economic policy, the IMF singled him out for criticism, the ratings agencies downgraded the UK’s credit rating, and he was seen as a hapless Chancellor.  His fortunes have had a revival and there are whispers of him becoming the next leader of the Conservative party.  Just like the Chancellor, the Conservative party has started to win the big arguments, with Labour now promising to be tough on welfare and to allow parents to open free schools, as well as the popular sale of Royal mail.  So by this logic the Conservatives should be set to coast to a majority in 2015, however it seems unlikely that it will be so easy.

Ed Miliband has highlighted a key issue, which has the potential to decide the next election in his conference speech, the cost of living.  Although you can easily argue that Labours policy to tackle the rising cost of energy is counterproductive.  Sadly for the Conservatives that is not their only idea, and as Labour slowly start to fill their policy void the cost of living will become a greater issue for Cameron and Osborne.  Labour’s other idea has received endorsements for rightward leaning think tanks and it is a logical idea that worked well for Alistair Darling and Conservative back benchers have also called for it.  It’s a cut to VAT , unless it is a substantial cut it will still be a token gesture but Darling’s own small cut in VAT did lead to economic growth.  But the Chancellor in his position of increased confidence says any savings made from cuts will be used to pay off government debts and there will be no VAT cut. 

The Chancellor may just be waiting until it is closer to the election before he starts to dish out goodies such as tax cuts or he might be plotting a different way to tackle the cost of living.  One such way cut be a cut to Green taxes which are damaging industry by increasing the cost of production which is being passed on to consumers, and it is severely damaging energy intensive industries such as the chemical and steel industries.  Moreover, for all the damage green taxes do to the economy and the cost of living they have a minimal effect on climate change.  Although Vince Cable has ruled out a cut to green taxes under the coalition this does not mean that a Conservative manifesto will not include such a policy and it would be a move of political genius that Osborne is known for.  It would some red meat for the right of the party and it would tackle the issue of the cost of living as well as showing that the Conservatives are on the side of UK industry.  Whatever Cameron and Osborne decide to do they will need a policy to tackle the cost of living problem in the UK or risk helping Ed Miliband into Number 10 after all very few people feel better off now than they did in 2010.