UKIP the UK’s Tea Party

UKIP the UK’s Tea Party

The Eastleigh by –election was a great success for UKIP and a dismal night for the Conservatives, 22% of Eastleigh’s Tory voters in 2010 voted UKIP in the by –election.  However, UKIP are not just stealing Tory votes, 19% of the 2010 Lib Dem vote turned to UKIP this time round, and 17% of Labours 2010 supporters decided UKIP was for them.  A poll showed that 55% of UKIP voters said that immigration was their key issue.  However immigration is not the only reason UKIP’s vote is growing.

UKIP is now a rallying point for voters who a sick of the three main parties who are seen as out of touch, scandals like the Iraq war and expenses have severely damaged the main party’s reputations.  Also inability to deal with mass immigration, housing and crime has helped UKIP’s cause,  UKIP are becoming more than a party of disgruntled former Tories it is becoming the party of those who are disillusioned with the main parties.  UKIP has also tapped into a new group of voter, people in their mid 20’s and 30’s who have never voted before, this group is turning out and are voting UKIP according to Nigel Farage.  If this is true this further supports the claim that UKIP are the party for people who are sick and left out of mainstream politics.

Although UKIP did fantastic in the by-election the general election could be very different to what we have seen in Eastleigh.  There are two main reasons for this, the first is that if UKIP are a protest vote for disillusioned Tories when it comes to 2015 there is a good chance they will vote Conservative again through fear of gifting seats to Labour or the Lib Dems.  This does not mean that the UKIP vote will collapse or that they won’t damage the Conservatives.  As seen in Eastleigh, those who don’t usually vote may vote UKIP and disillusioned floating voters may float towards UKIP and it is these floating voter which the Conservatives will need to win on top of their traditional base if they want a majority in 2015.  The second reason UKIP may not do as well in 2015 is Lynton Crosby, he is the Conservative party’s Karl Rove and is nicknamed as the Wizard of Oz due to his electoral success in Australia.  He will be in charge of the Conservative party’s strategy in 2015, he will digest the Eastleigh result and will be drawing up a plan to take UKIP’s vote.  In other words, he will try to make the Conservatives look more in touch with the electorate in an attempt to steal UKIP votes, if he is successful with this then UKIP’s vote may collapse.  However just like the US Tea party UKIP are showing just how many of the people are angry with the mainstream parties and that means they may be a new power in UK politics.