A Conservative victory is far from certain in 2015

A Conservative victory is far from certain in 2015

Labours lead is thin, the Economy is growing again, the UKIP rise has faltered, and everything is looking bright for the Conservative party.  Over recent weeks Conservative MPs have been in jovial mood and there has been relative harmony amongst the parliamentary party, and this is because the first Conservative majority since 1992 seems in reach.  However, there are still several large hurdles in the way of a Conservative Majority in 2015.

The Conservative party have the same problems today as they did in 2015 and if these problems are not addressed the chances of a majority in 2015 will be slim.  Firstly, the Conservative party is almost non-existent in Scotland, out of a possible 59 seats in Scotland the Conservatives currently hold only one.  The Scottish phenomenon is a real problem for the Conservative party, since 1979 the popularity of the Conservatives has declined in Scotland after the 79 election the Conservatives held 22 out of a possible 72 seats.  In 83 the Conservatives lost one seat leaving them with 21 MPs in Scotland, the 87 election saw the first major loss of support for the Conservatives in Scotland their number of MPs was slashed from 21 to 10.  The 92 election saw an increase in Conservative MPs in Scotland but only be a single MP and in the historic 97 election the Conservatives were left with no MPs in Scotland and since then the party has only held one seat in Scotland.  The Conservative party is really struggling in Scotland and there are no signs that its support will increase in 2015.

As well as struggling in Scotland, the Conservatives have a huge problem in Urban seats in the North and the Midlands currently they hold 20 out of a possible 124 in these areas.  The Conservative party needs a rebranding in the North and in Scotland and not a David Cameron detox style branding,  since 2005 David Cameron and his team have done a reasonable job of removing the nasty party label from the Conservative party.  However in Scotland and in the North it seems that it was not that voters thought the Conservatives to be the nasty party but an out of touch party, and I don’t believe that David Cameron is the man who can rebrand the party to be the party that northern and Scottish voters would see as in touch with them.  So this brings me on to another problem with the Conservative party, the parties image,  the Conservatives are still seen by many to be the party of the rich and despite many working and lower middle class people holding Conservative views they don’t vote Conservatives.  This is because they are seen as the party for the rich not the party for everyone, this is of course ridiculous and David Cameron has tried with his strives verse skivers line to rebrand the party as the party that stands up for hard working families.  Only time will tell if this works but personally I doubt it will, mainly because David Cameron’s background is one of a Tory toff  and Labour love to take advantage of this apparent weakness. 

To Conclude despite positive signs a Conservative majority in 2015 is still not a certain thing and this is because of problems in Scotland and the North as well as an image problem.  On top of this, the Conservatives have a massive lack of support amongst ethnic minorities even though many are natural Conservative voters.  Wales also looks like another area of unpopularity for the Conservatives but not on the same scale as Scotland and I almost forgot UKIP still has the potential to be a thorn in the Conservative party’s side come 2015.  But, despite all this the Conservatives have hired the Wizard of Oz Lynton Crosby and the man behind Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign Jim Messina, these two men are famous for election success and the Lynton Crosby effect has already helped improve the Conservatives ratings in the polls.  Although it is far from certain I believe the Conservatives will at least be the largest party in a hung Parliament and there is a good chance of a majority due to the current state of Labour.