Thursday, 18 October 2012

Boris For PM?

For some time now the question has been asked will Boris Johnson succeed Cameron as the man at the top of the conservative party? Well in public Boris has said he intends to finish his term as London mayor and if he keepsakes word we won't see him in Westminster until 2020.  But he won't defiantly keep his word and we could see him return to Westminster in 2015, but would this be good for the Conservatives?  The Prime minister already has some stiff opposition from the right of his party on issues such as Europe and some also are very unhappy with how he is managing the Liberals.  The Opposition is actually quite officiant to and includes well known Mp's such as Haltemprice and Howden MP the RT Honorable David Davis, the PM's opponents have already sunk the lib dems cherished house of lords reform bill.  Most of Cameron's opponents lie to the right of the conservative party and interestingly enough so does good old Boris.  Boris has not always been a strong supporter of the coalitions policies such as he wanted them to lower the top rate of tax even lower right down to 40p, but at last weeks conservative party conference Boris praised the PM and the cabinet for the work they are doing cleaning up Labour's mess.

The big question we have to ask is whether or not Cameron is genuinely unpopular with the right of the party or is it just down to the fact he is in a coalition with the Liberals? At the start of the year when Cameron vetoed a EU bill he was seen as a hero to those on the Right of the party but when he tried to push house of lords reform through Parliament he was seen as the enemy.  I see one of three things happening in 2015, if the Labour party win the election Cameron will either stand down or be booted out of the leadership of the conservative party and if Boris is in parliament be will be the next leader.  If the Conservatives win a majority and Cameron proves it was due to the politics of coalition he lost the right of the party and wins them back Boris won't be a threat to Cameron but he will be a threat to any other potential successors such as Osborn or Hauge. This next one is the dangerous one for the PM the conservatives either form another coalition or win a majority but Cameron remains unpopular with the right of his party if Boris is in Parliament he will be heralded as a hero of the right and he may challenge Cameron for the leadership. This is the only way I can see Boris being a threat to Cameron, in my opinion he is a threat to the next guy who wants to be leader.

Now if we stick with the final scenario of Cameron either being stuck in another coalition or having a majority and just being unpopular with the right, how could he deal with Boris? Well the obvious method to deal with a rival is to give them a cabinet job, if Boris is in the cabinet he can't speak out against the Prime Minister or he will have to resign due to collective ministerial responsibility.  Also if Boris is part of a cabinet that is implementing policy that is not popular with the right he may lose his popularity among the right of the party may decrease (although his popularity which is already high with the rest of the party may increase). He could also try to use Boris as his messenger to the right giving him the job of keeping the right of the party in return he could promise to back Boris in the next election.  He could also just ignore Boris and let him get on with his business as an MP.  Whatever happens it will be interesting to see how Cameron will react to Boris if the new Tory golden boy returns to Parliament in 2015.

Sunday, 14 October 2012

To Leave Or Not To Leave Afghanistan

To Leave Or Not To Leave Afghanistan

On October 7th 2001 an international coalition force invaded Afghanistan, 11 years later we are still there.  Since the election of Barack Obama an end is insight for our armed forces in Afghanistan but the question is should we have a withdrawal date? 

To Leave
One reason many politicians would like to leave Afghanistan in 2014 is that it is a popular decision as people are losing faith in the war, particularly when you see British and American troops being killed by the Afghan police and soldiers they are trying to train.  (This next point is based mainly on the British forces as I don’t know if there has been the same level of cuts to allied armies) As our Armed Forces are being cut to balance the nation’s budget maybe rather than cutting the jobs we could leave Afghanistan which would save the country loads of money, slow down recruiting (which is happening) and let natural wastage take affect and don’t make veterans redundant.  My final reason I will put forward for us to leave is Afghanistan is we have succeeded in our main goal was to get rid of Al –Qaeda training camps which threaten the west, we have done that but we are failing when it comes to stabilizing the nation so we should cut our losses pack up and go home.
To Stay
Afghanistan is a warrior nation it is in a constant state of war, by the allied forces leaving Afghanistan it will not end war in Afghanistan all that will happen is the allied trained security forces will fight the Taliban.  If the Taliban win or even just win a region of the country it could produce a west hating safe haven for terrorists. We will then have to constantly attack the area with drones or once again send our forces back to Afghanistan.  At home we fight for equal rights for women and minorities and if we look at Afghanistan due to allied forces women are getting more and more rights and all children can go to school. Although it is a horrible state of affairs in Afghanistan allied forces are slowly improving infrastructure and if we leave now all the good work will be undone.

To conclude I would stay in Afghanistan until the job is finished if we leave to early all those who lost their lives would have lost them for nothing.  As a mark of respect we can’t leave to early. 

Tuesday, 9 October 2012

A Sticky situation housing benefit for the under 25's

A Sticky situation housing benefit for the under 25's 

As part of the conservative parties efforts to sort out the national debt they have decided to wield their axes and start hacking at our heavily bloated welfare state, one of their new proposals it to get rid of housing benefits for under 25's.  As a conservative myself I initially thought this was a fantastic idea why should the under 25's receive housing benefit anyway?  They can just live with their parents, in my opinion it seemed like a great idea why should people who fail and leave school just get a free house while other young people like myself who stay in education or get a job don't receive such benefits. 

There are numerous reasons why in a perfect world young people under the age of 25 don't need housing benefit for example why should the state look after you if all you have done is attended school and then left and never got a job but go yourself a nice free house, why can't these people just get jobs like most people and rent a flat with their mates I know loads of people who have done this or maybe just maybe they could stay at home with their parent till they can afford to rent a property. There are many other reason why in a perfect world young people don't need a housing benefit. 

But this is not a perfect world and these are difficult times and after reading blog after blog,tweet after tweet and various newspaper articles from the left and the right I have had to come to terms with the fact that this is not a perfect policy. The main and best argument one which I struggle to think of a put down for is housing is expensive to rent or buy for many young people it is far to expensive even with a job which most people on housing benefit do not have, one solution to the expense problem is share a flat with mates or just rent a room well nearly all these people don't have a job so this is not an option for them and it difficult for them to get a job as most did poor at school and even those who did good will read job advert after job advert saying "experience needed" experience which interestingly enough school leavers don't actually have.  Now the response to this well the response I would give is fine if you don't have a job and can't have your own house or flat or even room just live with your parents.  Well as it have been pointed out to me on numerous occasions I have a very good relationship with every member of my family but that is not the case for everyone and moving in with parents or even another family member is not possible and some families simply don't have room for an adult child to live at home.  Now you can argue and I often do people who can't look after children are the main courses use of all our intercity problems and they just should not have kids, and in a perfect world they would realize this an not have children  but as stated earlier the is a far from perfect world and many births are not planned and many which are, are not properly planed so no matter your opinion these children who are not bad people they are just born into difficult circumstances may end up on the streets if we remove their housing benefit and no one wants a homeless problem on our hands.  

I do think the welfare state is to big and we do need to shrink it, I also think most people under 25 don't need housing benefit but we do need some sort of support maybe some sort of free hostel/ halls of residence for young people who do need the benefit so when we do axe the housing benefit for under 25's those who need support have it available to them. But our welfare system is bordering on the morbidly obese and in some areas of society people feel they don't need to take responsibility for their actions anymore because if a 15 year old get pregnant they will get a free house rather than having to make the tough decision on keeping the baby or put it up for adoption or even the most difficult option of them all an abortion, and there is no need in this day and age for young girls to get pregnant unless they want to (except for cases of rape of course) with the vast amounts of contraception available to them, but lucky for them the state is willing to support their every need if they do chose not to take responsibility for their actions.  Other people chose not to work as a lifestyle choice and this is unacceptable, it is not just a catchphrase Britain is Broken both it's society and it's economy and the morbidly obese welfare state is a cause of both these problems.  And until the welfare state is cut back to just a system which encourages people to work hard and get a job Britain will remain broken.